By Gabriel Ameh
Nigeria must move beyond short-term economic interventions and focus on building a larger, more productive economy capable of reaching the $1 trillion GDP mark by 2030, Chairman of the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), Dr. Niyi Akinsiju, has argued.
In an opinion piece titled “Beyond Macro-Reforms: Why $1 Trillion is Nigeria’s Only Logical Path Forward,” Akinsiju said the country’s economic debate should shift from managing immediate hardship to developing a long-term growth strategy anchored on investment, infrastructure, productivity and industrialisation.
He argued that Nigeria’s major economic challenge is not a shortage of entrepreneurial talent but inadequate domestic capital to finance infrastructure and productive activity on the scale required for sustained economic transformation.
According to Akinsiju, achieving a $1 trillion economy would expand Nigeria’s economic capacity and potentially improve the country’s ability to attract long-term investment into sectors such as transportation, power, manufacturing and other infrastructure.
He also argued that greater private-sector participation in infrastructure financing could reduce pressure on domestic credit markets and create more room for commercial lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
The Federal Government has itself adopted the $1 trillion economy target as part of its medium-term development agenda. The Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning said the 2026–2030 development plan is designed to support the target, while the Federal Government has described the ambition as requiring sustained structural reforms and investment.
However, international assessments indicate that reaching the target would require a substantial acceleration in Nigeria’s economic growth. The World Bank has previously said macroeconomic reforms alone would not be sufficient and that Nigeria would need significantly faster growth alongside reforms in infrastructure, trade, access to finance and human capital.
Akinsiju pointed to the removal of fuel subsidies and foreign-exchange reforms as major changes undertaken by the current administration, arguing that the measures were intended to reduce economic distortions and redirect resources towards productive activity.
He further referenced Nigeria’s recent economic performance, including real GDP growth of 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026. The figure represented an improvement from 3.89 per cent recorded in the first quarter, according to reports citing the Federal Government.
The IMPI chairman said the current economic debate should therefore include more detailed discussions about how Nigeria can accelerate growth, attract capital, expand productive sectors and bring a larger share of the informal economy into the formal system.
He particularly challenged opposition parties and presidential aspirants to present detailed economic programmes showing how they intend to achieve faster growth and meet the country’s long-term development targets.
“Alternative candidates,” he argued, should provide clear calculations on their proposed sources of capital, sectoral reforms and strategies for expanding formal employment and economic productivity.
Akinsiju maintained that political campaigns should increasingly focus on measurable economic objectives rather than short-term interventions and political grievances.
He said a larger and more productive Nigerian economy would be better positioned to create jobs, expand infrastructure, attract investment and convert the country’s large population into an economic advantage.
While the $1 trillion target remains an official government ambition, economic projections and independent assessments differ on the pace required to achieve it. The International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 projections, for example, put Nigeria’s real GDP growth at about 4.1 per cent for 2026 and 4.2 per cent for 2030, underscoring the scale of acceleration that would be required to reach the government’s stated target.
Akinsiju’s argument ultimately places the emphasis on the scale and quality of Nigeria’s economic transformation, urging political leaders to compete on detailed development plans, investment strategies and measurable economic outcomes.
Dr. Niyi Akinsiju is Chairman of the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI).
