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By Gabriel Ameh
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has released its 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), projecting significant variations in rainfall patterns across Nigeria and advising farmers to strictly follow official rainfall onset dates to avoid losses from premature cultivation.
The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, announced the forecast during the official presentation of the SCP in Abuja on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.
He noted that while most parts of Nigeria are expected to record normal annual rainfall amounts when compared to long-term averages, the timing, duration, and intensity of the rains will vary considerably across states.
The SCP, themed “Climate Science for Sustainable Development,” provides forecasts designed to support agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.
Rainfall Onset and Cessation
According to NiMet’s outlook, early rainfall onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States. In contrast, Borno State is projected to experience a late onset.
Rainfall cessation is expected to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States.
However, a delayed end of the rainy season is forecast for Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States.
Longer and Shorter Rainy Seasons
NiMet predicts a longer-than-normal rainy season in Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba States.
Conversely, parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.
Rainfall Volume Outlook
Above-normal rainfall is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory. Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall is projected for parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.
Dry Spells and August Break
Between March and May, severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, while moderate dry spells are expected across Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta, and parts of Kwara.
During the June–July–August period, severe dry spells of up to 21 days are predicted in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.
The Little Dry Season (August Break) is expected to begin in late July and may be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States, with between 28 and 40 days of little or no rainfall. A moderate effect is projected for Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.
Temperature Outlook
NiMet also forecasts warmer-than-average daytime and nighttime temperatures across most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2026.
Minister’s Advisory to Farmers
The Minister urged farmers and stakeholders in rain-fed agriculture to rely strictly on the SCP’s predicted rainfall onset dates or seek direct guidance from NiMet before commencing cultivation.
Stakeholder Participation and Recognition
Goodwill messages were delivered by the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development and international partners, including the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Prof. Celeste Saulo.
Members of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria shared testimonials in various Nigerian languages, citing the benefits of NiMet’s forecasts on agricultural outcomes.
As part of the event, NiMet marked 140 years of meteorological service to Nigeria, with past Directors-General recognised for their contributions.
The presentation concluded with the official launch of the 2026 SCP report by the Minister, alongside the Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, and other key stakeholders.
